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Re: Chappy's Ban Appeal Dakeku pretty much sums up my thoughts on this.

Chappy, you're a good guy, you should come clean.  You're out of staff, but you don't have to be out of the community.

August 19, 2013, 05:55:59 PM HST
1
Re: Chappy's Ban Appeal Sorry, Chappy, this has to be put to an end.

Ok, so I did quite a bit of math to prove things one way or the other.

First off, I did a video of shooting the rifle in 0.75 at various ranges.


I shot 60 rounds for 3 trials each.  I determined the following odds for headshots (actually, just kills, even if the kill shot hit the body)

127 blocks (max distance) no scope:
17.8%

127 blocks scoped:
36.7%

96 blocks (3/4ths max range) no scope:
20.5%

96 blocks scoped:
53.3%

Then I ripped and analyzed color's vid from youtube. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VocGrUmNWfU&feature=youtu.be

It's 480 lines, scaled down from 800x600, using topovl.  I changed my rez to 800x600, took screenshots of someone standing 96 blocks away both standing and crouching, and then took 600/480 to get 0.8.  Thus everything was 80% sized down:

A player standing at max range (128) has a 9 block tall ESP block, scaled is 7.2.
A player standing at 3/4ths range (96) has 17 block tall ESP block, scaled is 13.6
A player crouching at 3/4ths range has a 9 block tall ESP block, again scaled is 7.2.

Looking at color's vid from 12:10 until he's killed at 13:04, Chappy gets 14 kills.  The first 3 are within 96 blocks.  1 is a little under 96 blocks and also wasn't included in my math.  Pretty much after apparently switching on his hacks at 12:10, Chappy clears out everyone above ground south of the tower within close range, except one person who gets to a little past 3/4ths fog range about halfway through his streak.  All 14 kills were headshots with no misses.

I created the following data set to analyze.  The first 3 I guessed in block distance by looking at the map and were not analyzed:

persona
12:19
<32

pgl
12:20
~16

trytiop
12:23
>64

widgets
12:26
13px

persona
12:31
11px

pgl
12:34
7px crouched

persona
12:41
10px

pinki
12:43
6px crouched

trytiop
12:45
7.5px crouched (included in dataset, looking at the map and where the holes are, it's pretty much 96 blocks)

arm
12:48
12.5px

pgl
12:51
9px crouched (not included in dataset)

widgets
12:57
12.5px

arm
12:59
6px crouched

persona
13:00
12px

The pics I used to analyze are here:
http://imgur.com/a/mksJH

My objective is that for this 14 kill streak, to prove only the use of no spread.  Not aimbot, lag, or anything else that can be attributed to human error or perfection.  I made the following assumptions for the sake of the analysis

  • He's using aimbot and thus aiming at exactly the center of the heads.
  • All kills analyzed (10 of 14) are assumed to be standing at 96 blocks and zoomed (despite many of them actually being fog line)
  • Heads are entirely unobscured (even though a few partially are)
  • Each kill took 1 shot (which is true)
  • The odds of getting a headshot at 96 blocks while perfectly aimed is 53.3%

Computing 10 headshots without missing with a 53.3% chance for each is calculated as 53.3%^10. 

This comes to 0.17%.  The probability of Chappy getting this streak without error and using aimbot (but having spread) is 0.17%.  This is an extremely conservative number; assuming everyone was at 96 blocks instead of fog line (where odds of hitting drop to 36.67%). 

Another way of thinking of this is that if he had aimed and played this exact way 588 times, it is expected that in one of those he'd have gotten all the headshots as done in this video. 

Also, this is only the first 14 kills analyzed of a 70 kill streak.  Looking at the remainder of the video I would expect to find the same thing.

Simply put, Chappy was using no spread.

August 20, 2013, 09:23:04 PM HST
1